The USDA had assumed a substantial increase in both Brazilian corn production and exports this season. Dry weather could significantly change the Brazilian corn outlook and tighten the US corn supply. We have assumed a 10 million tonne switch from Brazilian origin to US origin corn and plotted the result Read more…
USDA reported year over year increases in both feeder cattle placements and finished cattle marketings last month. Based on cattle on feed data we project a 4% drop in fat cattle sales during the December 2021 through May 2022 period.
The USDA reported a 5% year over year drop in the number of hogs kept for market on December 1, 2021. Based on original historical data the reported inventory would result in a January/June 2022 FIS barrow and gilt slaughter of slightly less than 60 million head, the least since Read more…
Warmer and drier than normal weather is negatively impacting the Brazilian soybean crop. Earlier this month the USDA maintained a trend yield forecast for the new Brazilian crop of 144 million tonnes or 3.56 tonnes per hectare. As a what if exercise we assumed an average yield of 3 tonnes Read more…
Finished cattle prices have risen sharply over the last year, but cattle feedlot profitability has been eroded by rising feed costs. The finished steer/corn price ratio currently is about the same as in mid December 2020. Feeder cattle replacement cost has increased 20% over the last year. As a result Read more…
Soybean crush margins this Autumn have averaged more than $1.00 per bushel better than in the two previous years. Strong demand for both products, but especially for soybean oil, has benefited soybean crushers. Wide margins spur the soybean crush and also provide a cushion for soybeans if meal and oil Read more…