We forecast winter B&G slaughter at 31.6 million head which would be down 8% from the previous year. Our estimate is based on original pig crop data supplied by USDA in September. Pork demand in early 2022 will shift to the right because of the lack of Chinese pork import Read more…
In the November 2021 WASDE report the USDA forecast the 2021/2022 US soybean carryout at 340 million bushels or 8% of crop year usage (excluding residual). The accompanying scatter studies plot the winter and early spring high and low for central Illinois soybeans as a function of the US soybean Read more…
We calculate the US hog inventory on December 1, 2021 at 74 million head which would be the smallest hog census for that date since 2017. High feed costs and market uncertainty have so far blunted the upswing in the hog inventory cycle. The December 2021 Hogs and Pigs report Read more…
USDA reported the number of cattle in US feedlots on November 1, 2021 was down fractionally from a year ago. Finished cattle sales declined last month while October 2021 feeder cattle placements increased from levels in the corresponding month in 2020. Our model has finished cattle marketings in the November Read more…
The US had sold 1.27 billion bushels of soybeans by mid November compared to 1.9 billion bushels at the same time the previous year. Mid November soybean sales to China totaled less than 700 million bushels compared to more than a billion bushels at the same time a year ago. Read more…
This month USDA estimated the US soybean carryout for the 2021/2022 crop year at 340 million bushels or 8% of crop year usage (excluding residual). We have scattered the October/May high for Midwest soybean meal as a function of the US soybean carryout to usage ratio as forecast by USDA Read more…
One factor that has supported finished cattle prices in recent months has been a sharp increase in the value of by-products (principally hides). The beef by product value has increased $20+ /cwt over the last 18 months boosting live cattle prices to $10+ higher levels than would be expected from Read more…
The USDA reported 81% of the US winter wheat crop had emerged by mid November which is close to the historical average. USDA rated 46% of the crop in good or excellent condition as of November 14, 2021 which is below the historical trend line based on the crop years Read more…
The USDA forecast the domestic per capita pork supply in 2022 at 49.9 pounds compared to the 50.7 pound estimate for 2021. High grain prices could stall an upturn in the hog cycle for the next calendar year. The December Hogs and Pigs report, scheduled for release on December 23,2021 Read more…
The USDA rated 45% of the US winter wheat crop in good or excellent condition on 11/07/21 which is well below the recent 25-year average of 57%. The final US winter wheat yield is only roughly correlated with fall ratings as the winter wheat crop is made by early spring Read more…
In the November Wasde report USDA forecast the 2022 US corn carryout at 1.5 billion bushels or 10% of 2021/2022 crop year usage. We have scattered the winter high and low for central Illinois corn as a function of the USDA’s winter corn carryout/usage ratio. The current 10% ratio would Read more…