This week the USDA assessed 58% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition. In the years 1988 through 2020 there was a significant correlation between the revision of USDA’s soybean crop estimate in August (a survey based forecast) from the July estimate (based primarily on trend) and Read more…
The US feeder cattle supply on July 1, 2021 totaled 36.7 million head compared to 36.7 million head a year ago based on the July 2021 cattle report. The accompanying scatter chart plots the July/December average price for deliverable feeder steers (650 -900 # ) as a function of the Read more…
This month the USDA estimated this season’s average US corn yield at 179 bushels per harvested acre. The July estimate included in the July WAOB report is based primarily on trend. In August USDA is scheduled (August 12, 2021) to release the first survey based yield estimate. Historically there has Read more…
The USDA rated 60% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition on 7/18/2021 which compared to the preceding 35-year average of 61%. A model based on the mid-season crop rating for the years 1986 through 2020 forecasts a national average soybean yield of 49.5 bushels per harvested Read more…
In the July WAOB report the USDA forecast the 2021/2022 US wheat carryout at 665 million bushels or 32% of crop year usage.compared to 44% a year ago. We have prepared two scatter studies showing the August/November high and low for soft red wheat as a function of the Read more…
This month the USDA forecast the 2021/2022 crop year US soybean carryout at 155 million bushels or 3.5% of usage (excluding residual). A carryover of less than 5% would be considered the minimum pipeline level based on historical data. We have scattered the harvest time lows and highs for central Read more…
USDA rated 65% of the US corn crop in good or excellent condition on July 11, 2021 which is exactly equal to the rating in the previous 30 years for the date. USDA put silkinking at 26% which leaves about three quarters of the crop still vulnerable to heat damage. Read more…
The US cattle inventory may have declined about one million head in the year ending June 30, 2021 based on data available in early July. Keeping feedlots full over the next six months will be more difficult if ranchers withhold additional heifers for breeding as seems necessary to build back Read more…
US corn consumers are faced with a year plus of very tight supplies. We have produced the accompanying charts to display the prospective corn balance following the June 30 reports. Basse on history the corn trade needs at least 5% of crop year usage as a minimum pipeline supply. The Read more…