The USDA estimated the feeder cattle supply over 500 pounds on January 1, 2021 at 11.5 million head which is about equal to the year earlier tally. We have scattered the average feeder cattle price during the first quarter of the year as a function of the feeder supply. Note Read more
The prosperity grain producers have enjoyed since harvest has squeezed hog producers financial balance. Hog prices have lost on both major costs of operation, corn and soybean meal. We have plotted the hog/corn and hog/soybean meal ratios for the winter quarter and both ratios are near or at 25-year lows. Read more
We estimate the US cattle inventory on January 1 at 94.8 million head which is up marginally from the past three years. Cattle numbers have been relatively stable over the past few years breaking, at least temporarily, from the inventory cycle that prevailed through most of the post WWII period. Read more
US corn feed residual use increased modestly during the first quarter of 2020/21 crop year. By contrast USDA projects a 4% drop in crop year feed and residual disappearance.USDA reasons the recent bull corn market will ration corn supplies thru the last three quarters of the crop year. We have Read more
The WOAB forecast the US soybean carryout for the 2020/2021 season at 140 million bushels or 3% of crop year usage which would be among the tightest seasons in the last 50 years. Our long term price model suggests a winter spring high for Central Illinois soybeans at near $18 Read more
The December hog survey suggests barrow and gilt slaughter will decline modestly this quarter compared to a year ago. Slaughter is likely to overrun the year earlier level this spring as last year’s data was distorted by the Covid 19 problem. On a longer historical prospective deliverable hogs are trading Read more
Ethanol processors are paying plus $1.36 for corn since harvest. The increased corn value has been derived from an increased $.27 from the value of ethanol, $.56 increased value of distillers dried grains (DDGS), and $.53 from reduced processor margin. DDGS values are correlated with soybean meal prices and the Read more
The USDA forecasts 2020/21 US meal exports at 14 million short tons which is optimistic compared to end of December sales of less than seven million tons. USDA may be counting on the recent tendency for US soybean meal sales to strengthen in the second half of the crop year Read more
Dry weather has hampered South American soybean development this season. USDA will almost certainly downgrade the crop estimates on January 12. We have plugged in our crop estimates assuming the soybean crops in both Brazil and Argentina will fall at trend level or less. The Austral season still has roughly Read more