USDA reported the number of cattle on feed October 1 increased 4% from a year ago and was record high for the date. Cattle marketings, placements, and non fed steer-heifer slaughter all returned to normal activity after the disruption in the spring. Cattle supplies for slaughter will be adequate Read more…
This month the USDA forecast cash soybean meal price for the 2020/2021 season at $335/ton. We have scattered the historic October/May highs for central Illinois meal versus the USDA estimate. Note the scatter suggests a potential high between $400 and $500. In the past USDA made range price forecasts but Read more…
Domestic soybean meal consumption is a function of High Protein Consuming Animal Units and the price of soybean meal. The HPCAU index and meal price account for 87% of the variation in meal consumption over the period 1980 through 2020. In the October WAOB report USDA forecast 2020/2021 domestic meal Read more…
This month USDA forecast 2020/2021 U.S. feed residual usage at 5775 million bushels compared to 5827 million bushels a year ago. Feed/residual usage is a function of animal numbers, expressed as grain consuming animal units, and the cost of corn as represented by the average price of corn at farm Read more…
The USDA is scheduled to release the September Cattle of Feed data October 23, 2020. We estimate the on feed inventory at 11.6 million head which is up 3% from a year ago and a record high for the date. The supply of finished cattle projects to be adequate to Read more…
The USDA provided quarterly Pork production and demand estimates for the next year in the October WAOB report. We have expressed the aggregate supply estimates as per capita domestic Pork supply for the period October 2020 through September 2021 and averaged the current futures price quotes for the same period Read more…
The USDA forecast the average soybean to the farmer at $9.80 during the 2020/21 season compared to $8.55 last season. To put the price forecast in perspective we set the average farm price as a function of the carryout to crop year usage ratio. In the October WAOB report the Read more…
The USDA provided quarterly beef production and price estimates for the next year in the October WAOB report. We have expressed the aggregate supply estimates as per capita domestic beef supply for the period October 2020 through September 2021 and averaged the price forecasts for the same period The accompanying Read more…
USDA cut the new crop (2020/21) U.S. corn carryout this month in line with a small U.S. corn crop estimate. USDA also cut Feed and industrial usage. We have prepared a chart displaying the ratio of the October estimate stocks to crop year usage ratio excluding feed usage. We have Read more…
The USDA dropped the new crop U.S. soybean carryout estimate to 290 million bushels. Expressed as a ratio of carryout to crop year usage (excluding residual) the projection would be the tightest since 2014 (2013/2014 crop year) when cash soybeans topped $15 per bushel. The world still has the prospect Read more…
The accompanying charts depict commercial hog slaughter during the October/December 2020 and January/March 2021 quarters with forecasts based on the original pig crop data for May/March and June/August quarters. The model statistics are included in the charts. Just a few days into the quarter autumn slaughter was running very close Read more…
The U.S. had sold 1.5 billion bushels of soybeans as of early October compared to slightly less than 600 million bushels at the same time last year. China has been the driving force behind the surge in sales. The accompanying scatter study displays crop year soybean exports as a function Read more…
The accompanying scatter study displays the winter through spring high for soft red wheat in Chicago as a function of U.S. wheat carryout stocks as a % of crop year food use and exports. China, in the past a minor buyer of U.S. wheat has purchased nearly million tonnes of Read more…
The accompanying scatter study displays the high for central Illinois soybeans as a function of the new crop soybean carryout as a percent of usage excluding residual. Working the recent stocks data through USDA’s September S/D balance results in a 9% estimate for the independent variable. The Southern hemisphere crop Read more…