The cut in the old crop corn carryout estimate this week has pushed the new crop corn balance further into the volatile range. The accompanying scatters display the highs and lows for central Illinois corn as a function of the U.S. corn carryout as a percentage of crop year food, Read more…
The USDA estimated the March/August 2020 pig crop at 70 million head which was down 1% from a year earlier. Based on the pig crop and projected imports we forecast the October 2020/March 2021 at 66 million head which is about equal to the year ago level. We have also Read more…
Corn export sales for the 2020/21 season totaled 873 million bushels on September 17 which is well ahead of other years in the past three decades. China has purchased almost 400 million bushels of U.S corn for 2020/21 delivery.
U.S. exports sales for the 2020/2021 crop year totaled 1.1 billion bushels on September 17 which is well ahead of any past year. China is the big buyer with purchases totaling more than 700 million bushels.
The faltering soybean oil market has forced soybean meal to assume a larger share of the crush margin. We have forecast the October/May meal price range based 0n the prospective soybean carryout and crop year 2020/21 U.S. soybean meal exports. The USDA September estimates suggest a cash meal market high Read more…
The USDA is scheduled to release the August Cattle of Feed data September 25, 2020. We estimate the on feed inventory at 11.2 million head which is up 2% from 11 million head a year ago and a record high for the date. The supply of finished cattle projects to Read more…
We estimate all hogs and pigs in the U.S. on September 1 at 78 million head, down 1% from a year ago but still large relative to years prior to 2019. The September 1 estimate contrasts sharply with the June 2020 inventory which was up 5% from data for 2019. Read more…
USDA expects domestic beef supplies to increase on a per capita basis during the first half of 2021 compared to the artificially constrained January/July supply. USDA has Deliverable steers trading at an average $107 in the first half of 2021 which falls directly on the regression line displayed in the Read more…
USDA rated 60% of the U.S. corn crop in good or excellent condition as of mid September which is down from 70%+ in mid summer, and near the midpoint of all years since 1988. Unlike the soybean case the USDA September estimate outperforms the crop conditions models so we Read more…
USDA rated 63% of the U.S. soybean crop in good or excellent condition as of mid September which is down from 70%+ in mid summer, but still in the upper two third of years since 1988. A yield model using trend and the weekly rating estimates the national average soybean Read more…
The USDA estimated the 2020/21 foreign corn deficit at 60 million tonnes which will be the fourth consecutive season of large shortfalls. Depleted stocks will translate the deficit into stronger export demand for U.S. corn. China has already purchased 9 million tonnes of U.S. corn for 2020/21 delivery compared to Read more…
China has gotten off to a fast start purchasing 15 million tonnes of soybeans for 2020/21 delivery compared to less than a million tonnes at the same time last year. China’s soybean imports are a linear function of soybean meal usage as the variation of use of domestic soybean meal Read more…
USDA cut the 2020 and 2021 pork production estimates modestly this month but production remains on the trend established over the last thirty years. The export market is expected to be strong over the next year and a half. Deliverable hogs could average near $70 in the October/December period.
We have found that the U.S. corn carryout as a % of industrial usage plus exports is a reliable indicator of corn price discovery. USDA presently forecasts the 2020/2021 corn carryout at 2.7 billion bushels which is 28% of food ,industrial, fuel plus exports. The ratio suggests a high in Read more…
The USDA cu the 2020/2021 soybean carryout forecast to 460 million bushels compared to the 615 million bushel forecast in August. Based on the September WAOB report our harvest time study suggests a high near $12 for cash soybeans in Central Illinois. Strong demand from China and a smaller crop Read more…
China has purchased more than 13 million tonnes of new crop U.S. soybeans which is well ahead of the pace established in recent years.China’s soybean purchases are keyed to increasing domestic soybean meal demand and the effort to provide the population with increased animal protein. In the season just ended Read more…
U.S. corn sales to China have been a major supporting force in the corn futures market this summer.New Sales to China totaled 7.6 million tonnes on 8/27/2020 which is well above sales in recent years.
USDA cut the corn crop condition to 62 % this week compared to 64% last week and the peak rating of 75% in June 2020 and the 1988/2019 average of 60%. A model using yield as a function of late August rating results in a calculated yield of 182 bushels Read more…