This week USDA dropped the U.S. soybean crop rating to 66% good or excellent compared to 69% the previous week and the 30 year average 56% for the same week. Our crop conditions model projects a national average soybean yield of about 50 bushels per harvested acre compared to the Read more
The August 2020 WAOB report forecast 4th qt. Domestic per capita pork supply at 17.3 pounds compared to 17.7 pounds in the same period a year ago. The accompanying scatter study displays 4th qt. Deliverable hog price as a function of per capita supply. Note that December hogs are trading Read more
The accompanying scatter study displays the harvest high for central Illinois soybeans as a function of USDA’s supply/usage balance as published in November. The WAOB’s latest forecast results in a U.S. stocks/usage (excluding residual) ratio of 14% and a calculated harvest high of $10.34. Reducing the 2020 U.S. soybean yield Read more
In the August WAOB report USDA calculated the foreign corn deficit at 57 million tonnes in 2020/21 compared to 51 million tonnes last season.Most of the deficit was attributable to China. China has already purchased about six million tonnes of new crop U.S. corn compared to two.million tonnes in 2019/2020.USDA Read more
The USDA forecast the season average corn price at farm level in 20/21 at $3.10 compared to $3.60 during the season just concluded. The $3.10 forecast would suggest a season high of $3.68 and season low of $2.63 basis cash corn in Central Illinois. Our studies are based on the Read more
The USDA forecast the season average soybean price at farm level in 20/21 at $8.35 compared to $8.55 during the season just concluded. The $8.35 forecast would suggest a season high of $10.36 and season low of $7.25 basis cash soybeans in Central Illinois. Our studies are based on the Read more
USDA cut the US corn rating to 69% good or excellent from 71% the previous week. As can be observed in the chart ratings have a strong bias to drop in the late summer. The summer storm of 8/10/2020 likely did some damage in Iowa, but the quantity of corn Read more
The USDA rated 72% of the soybean crop in good or excellent condition as of 8/16/2020 compared to 74% the previous week and the 31-year average of 57%. Ratings normally drop slightly in August as can be observed in the chart. Last week’s storm damage would amount to less than Read more
The accompanying scatter displays 4th qt. Deliverable hog price as a function of the October-December domestic pork supply. The point labeled 2020 is based on the August 2020 WAOB report and current December hog futures. Hogs are currently trading below the regression line but within the standard error of the Read more
The accompanying scatter study displays the average season farm level soybean price as a function of the soybean carryout stocks to crop year usage ratio. The August 2020 WAOB soybean supply usage balance results in a new crop ratio of 14% compared to the old crop ratio of 16%. Read more
USDA expects pork production to recover through the remainder of 2020 and also increase modestly in 2021.Pork exports will continue to be a major supporting force in the hog market.
USDA rated 74% of the soybean crop in good or excellent condition on August 9 compared to the 32 year average for that date of 58%.The rating is associated with a yield estimate on 51+ bushels per acre compared the USDA July estimate of slightly less than 50 bushels.
The USDA is scheduled to release the August corn crop estimate on August 12,2020. We estimate the August yield estimate at 183 bushels per acre which compares to the current record 177 bushels/harvested acre set in 2017. The correlation index for the August corn yield forecast and the final Read more
The USDA is scheduled to release the August soybean crop estimate on August 12,2020. We estimate the August yield estimate at 51 bushels per acre which is just off the record 52 bushels/harvested acre set in 2016. The correlation index for the August yield forecast and the final estimate published Read more
The USDA has forecast Midwest steers in the 4th quarter will average $105/CWT. compared to $113 last fall and December 2020 futures of $112 trading on 8/4/2020. The accompanying scatter displays the price of finished steers as a function of the 4th quarter domestic beef supply on a per person Read more
Midwest farmers will likely enjoy another record corn yield this season. Our model based on the early August crop rating projects a national average corn yield of 183+ bushels per harvested acre which exceeds the previous record by six bushels per acre.