A model that forecasts the National average soybean yield based on late July conditions projects a yield of just under 51 bushels per harvested acre compared to USDA’s July estimate of just under 50 bushels. Holding usage constant would put the 2020/2021 carryout at 480+ bushels compared to the USDA’s Read more…
USDA rated 72% of the U.S. corn crop in good or excellent condition as of July 27. With more than 80% of the crop past the silking stage and a quarter in the dough stage we consider the 2020 corn crop made. Our model projects a yield of 180+ bushels Read more…
The accompanying scatter study plots the U.S. national average season price for corn as a function of the carryout stocks usage ratio. We have deducted feed usage leaving the more inelastic exports, food, seed and fuels categories. In the July 2020 WAOB report the USDA’s supply usage balance resulted Read more…
USDA rated 69% of the U.S. Corn crop in good or excellent condition as of 07/19/20. Mid July conditions point to a 180 /bushel per acre Corn yield which is a little better than USDA’s July estimate.
USDA rated 69% of the U.S. Soybean crop in good or excellent condition as of 07/19/20. Mid July conditions point to a 50+ soybean yield which is a little better than USDA’s July estimate.
The value of ethanol and DDGS has made a sharp recovery this summer. Weather will continue to be the dominant force in the corn market for a few more weeks. Cranking up corn processing will put a higher bottom to the corn market than was anticipated last spring.
The USDA rated both the soybean and corn crops over 70% in good or excellent condition as of July 5. Ratings of 65% plus have often been associated with record or near record yields. Hot dry weather could still derail corn yields as just 10% of the crop is through Read more…
We calculate the July 1 cattle inventory at 109 million head which is about the same as the last two years.The USDA is scheduled to release the U.S. Cattle report on July 24, 2020. July through December commercial cattle slaughter will likely increase modestly compared to a year ago. Note Read more…
We have calculated a revised US wheat balance incorporating the June acreage data and the most recent crop condition reports. Our U.S. wheat carryout in 2021 is slightly larger than USDA’s early June forecast.
The USDA raised the soybean planted area estimate modestly based on data gathered from the June survey. Here is a look at the supply/demand balance incorporating the new data. The center column is the WAOB June estimate and the right most column assumes the June survey estimate.