The USDA’s March survey put the area planted to soybeans in 2020 at 83.5 million acres which would be up sharply from a year ago, but under the average area planted in the years of 2017 through 2018.. The R2 between the March survey and the final area estimate was Read more…
The USDA’s March survey put the area planted to corn in 2020 at just under 97 million acres which would be slightly short of the record established in 2012. The R2 between the March survey and the final area estimate was 96% in the period from 1965 through 2019 and Read more…
Commercial hog slaughter in the second half of 2020 will total a record 69 million head assuming the March hogs and Pigs data and USDA’s March estimates. Ample hog supplies and strong pork export demand will likely keep the pork carcass cutout trading at a larger than normal premium to Read more…
Corn feed use may be moderately stronger than USDA assumed in the March WASDE report. USDA estimates grain consuming animal units (GCAU) will average a two percent increase in 2019/2020 which points to a 300 million bushel plus increase in corn feed usage compared to the USDA’s 95 million bushel Read more…
The pace of US soybean export sales has fallen below that needed to make the USDA’S March estimate of 1825 million bushels. U.S. soybean exporters will face stiff competition from a record South American soybean crop through the remainder of the calendar year. The USDA may trim the old Read more…
USDA reported a four percent increase in US hog numbers on farms March 1. The hog industry was more productive in the second half of 2019 than had been reported in December. The second half of 2019 pig crop was revised up by two million head or three percent, a Read more…
U.S. corn exports sales for the current quarter totaled 1.2 billion bushels, down from 1.7 billion bushels at the same time a year ago. Spring/summer corn export sales will likely pick up compared to the slow first half pace, but probably not enough to be a dominant price supporting force. Read more…
Pork cutout values have shown exceptional strength through the recent economic turmoil. Strong export demand and seasonal factors in the domestic market have boosted pork prices. Also, pork consumption is home based more so than beef and broilers which depend more heavily on restaurant and fast food outlets.
Broiler production has increased sharply this year. Broiler type chick hatch increases in most years but has been given an extra boost by strong export demand. Broilers are the leading consumers of soybean meal. In effect the U.S. is exporting soybean meal in the form of broiler meat and pork. Read more…
We use a model that forecasts corn price (Central Illinois) ) based on corn carryout stocks and food, seed and industrial corn usage. The model calculates a spring early price range of $4.03 to $4.42 assuming the March USDA old crop supply/demand estimates. The scatter plot shows May corn trading Read more…
The panic of 2020 has agricultural commodities trading low on the traditional economic value studies. The accompanying scatter plots the average feeder cattle price in the second quarter as a function the feeder cattle supply on January first. Currently futures are trading well below the regression line established from 2000 Read more…
The USDA estimated the combined 2020 Brazil- Argentina corn crop corn crop at 151 million tonnes (5.9 billion bushels) this month which compares to 152 million tonnes (a rounded six billion bushels) a year ago. Combined exports were forecast at 2.7 billion bushels in the current local crop year Read more…
This winter’s break in fat cattle prices could provide a buying opportunity in spring live cattle futures assuming this month’s beef supply/usage estimates from USDA. The accompanying scatter study plots the April/June average price for finished steers in the Midwest as a function of the per capita supply of beef Read more…
The USDA increased both the Argentine and Brazilian soybean crop estimates by one million tonnes this month. We have found that the Brazilian estimate has increased from the March forecast into the austral fall in most years in which the March soybean estimate was increased. But the same trend does Read more…
The USDA did not make any changes to the U.S supply/Usage balance estimate this month. The old crop carryout to stocks ratio is estimated at 43% compared to 53% last year. The accompanying scatter study plots the March/June high for Chicago cash wheat as a function of the old crop Read more…
U.S. pork export sales have doubled this year to date with sales to China the principal destination. China’s swine herd was decimated by swine fever. China’s sow inventory is recovering but it will take some time for slaughter numbers to get back to normal. Increased hog numbers will require boosting Read more…
We estimate the March 1 hog inventory at 69 million head compared to 68 million head a year ago. Our estimate assumes the USDA December/February sows farrowing forecast published in December and a trend estimate for pigs per litter. The accompanying study shows the April/June average cash porkcut out as Read more…