The USDA has scheduled the release of the March planting survey for March 3,.2020. We have developed a model for the March soybean survey based on the harvest to early spring price of soybeans, corn and soybean area the previous year. Cash soybeans in central Illinois have scored a high Read more…
The USDA is scheduled to release the first corn area estimate of the season based on March intentions on March 31, 2020. We have developed a model which uses harvest to late winter price for Midwest corn and soybeans plus acreage the previous year to forecast the March intentions for Read more…
The corm market has been balanced between reduced supplies and weak export demand. The USDA estimates the U.S. corn carryout this fall at 1.9 billion bushels which is down from a year ago but not tight by historical standards. Foreign corn buyers have chosen to reduce burdensome stocks this season Read more…
There were 11.8 million head of cattle on feed February first, on the high side of recent history. The USDA has forecast a 2% year over year increase in U.S. beef production in 2020. Aggregating USDA’s production, trade and population data results in 21.3 pound per person domestic beef supply Read more…
Cash soybeans (Central Ill.) appear to have potential for a spring rally. The accompanying scatter studies display the highs and lows for cash soybeans as a function of a model forecast. The model uses the US soybean carryout and soybean oil exports and soy oil used as fuel to forecast Read more…
Cash soybean meal has potential for a spring rally. The accompanying scatter studies display the highs and lows for cash soybean meal as a function of a model forecast. The model uses the US soybean carryout and soybean meal exports to forecast the winter spring soybean meal price range. Note Read more…
The USDA’s February forecast for the Brazilian soybean crop used a yield slightly above the 25 year trend. The Argentine soybean yield for 2020 was assumed to be directly on the 25 year trend. The USDA’s February Brazilian production estimate on a first difference basis has only a 40% Read more…
U.S. soybean oil sales are running well ahead of the pace needed to match the USDA’s crop year export total of 1.7 billion pounds or 771 thousand tonnes. The accompanying scatter chart displays crop year exports as a function of late January sales. Strong export sales will be a supporting Read more…
The USDA has estimated the January 1 U.S. feeder supply outside feedlots at roughly 200 thousand head less than available a year ago. We have scattered the 1st quarter feeder price as a function of the January 1 feeder supply. The point marked in red is the price and supply Read more…