USDA Cuts 2025 Pork Production Forecast
The USDA reduced the 2025 US pork production estimate this month but still expects a modest increase for the year as a whole. Hog slaughter has trailed the USDA earlier forecast based on daily FIS slaughter data.
| US Pork Supply (Million Pounds) | ||||||
| Annual | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | % Change |
| Beg Stock | 467 | 446 | 504 | 471 | 435 | |
| Production | 27,690 | 27,009 | 27,316 | 27805 | 28,440 | 2% |
| Imports | 904 | 1,344 | 1,143 | 1148 | 1,115 | -3% |
| Exports | 7,026 | 6,338 | 6,818 | 7115 | 7,220 | 1% |
| End Stocks | 446 | 504 | 471 | 435 | 425 | -2% |
| Per Cap | 51.1 | 51.1 | 50.2 | 49.9 | 50.7 | 2% |
| Farm Price | $68 | $73 | $63 | $62 | $63 | 2% |
| USDA March 2025 Data | ||||||
| June CME Lean hog Futures Winter/spring Price Range | ||||||
| High | $123 | $127 | $106 | $110 | $113 | |
| Low | $91 | $97 | $75 | $91 | $94 | |
We maintain our CME June 2025 contract spring price range forecast of $94 to $113. June hog prices have a slight bullish seasonal bias from mid March into the April/June period.
USDA will provide additional supply prospects guidance with the release of the March Hogs and Pigs report scheduled for March 27,2025.
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